Coming into this year, Joe Biden's approval rating was at a less than ideal 43.3%. A nearly 10% decrease from his initial approval rating of around 53%. Perceived weak leadership and lack of accomplishment paired with rising inflation and gas prices, and a slow to startup supply chain; Joe Biden was certainly in a position which suggested midterm failures. By July, Mr. Biden has an approval rating hovering around 38%. The lowest of any president in their second year in modern history, To make matters worse for Biden, he was dealing with a historical uphill battle. Since World War 2, the sitting president's party has lost an average of 26 house seats and 4 senate seats in the midterms. Historical trends paired with a historically unpopular President seemed to signal doom for the Democrats. With the current makeup of the House of Representatives being 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans and the current senate being evenly divided, (50-50) These thin majorities could be easily toppled. As currently composed, these average losses would result in 54-46 senate makeup in favor of the Republicans and a 239-196 house makeup also in favor of the Republicans. However, in recent months following a variety of perceived legislative accomplishments, and the deeply unpopular Supreme Court decision which struck down the 50 year precedent of Roe vs Wade, Democrats and Mr. Biden has surged in their poll numbers. Making what some assumed would be a red wave year (red wave indicates large Republican victory) less and less certain. So what factors caused this changing of the guard?
For starters, individual candidates matter far more in large senate races. How well one person can appeal to the individual state is generally speaking, less likely to mirror nation trends. In that regard Democrats strongly over performed selecting strong, individual candidates, while overall Republicans nominated less popular candidates in individual races. In the start of the primary season, the states believed to be most in play were the following: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania. Democrats held the seats of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, and Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania was retiring leaving the seat vacant. Republicans only need to flip one of the first three states to gain control of the senate. The Democrats then should’ve spent most of their time on defense guarding these competitive states against Republican candidates. Interestingly enough, this didn't exactly happen. For instance, Democrats went on offense recruiting Pennsylvania's popular Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman. Who surged to win nearly 60% of the state in his own democratic primary. In the Republican primary, initial front runner Sean Parnell dropped out over accusations of abuse emerging from his ex-wife, leading a field consisting of Hedge Fund Manager David McCormick, and former reality TV Star Mehmet Oz, more commonly known as Dr. Oz. Ultimately Oz won by just over 900 votes. But multiple factors such as his wealthy background, perceived out of toughness, prior residency in New Jersey (not Pennsylvania), and his Turkish background have made him deeply unpopular. Recent polls suggest that Fetterman is leading by as many as 11 points.
In states once thought of as long shots for the Democrats, like Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin have become far more competitive. Across the 3 states, Republicans only lead by an average of 0.5-4%. Because of the competitive nature of these Republican held states. The GOP has needed to put greater resources into states they already hold instead of states they hoped to win. But the offensive efforts of Democrats should not suggest they are falling behind on the defensive front. In Georgia Republican, and former NFL star Hershel Walker has been forced to deal with allegations of abuse against his ex-wife as well as a scandal involving multiple secret children which he had hidden. Despite secretly hiding multiple children from the press, Walker has long been critical of absent fathers. In states like Arizona, and Nevada, Republican candidates' opposition to abortion has proven to be damaging to their chances. The woman's right to choose is widely approved in both states. According to 538s cumulative polling numbers, they give the Democrats a 68% chance of holding their control of the Senate. While victory is not an outright certainty, it seems far more likely than it did mere months ago.
In the house of representatives, things are somewhat less optimistic for the Democrats. Due to the smaller size of the races individual candidates matter less than in senate races. And in addition, large gerrymandering in states, like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florid, have made it harder for the Democrats to pick up seats. (Gerrymandering refers to instances when house districts are unfairly drawn to benefit a certain political party and make the map harder for opponents to win.) Despite these obstacles there are some signs to give Democrats hope in the house. For starters, 4 special elections have taken place to show house candidates outperforming Biden's own victories in 2020. Special elections occur through the death, appointment, imprisonment, or any other factor that forces a representative to be removed from office. In Nebraska's 1st congressional district, just four days after the overturning of Roe, Republicans won the special election by 6 points. But why would this be a sign of hope for Democrats? Well, Biden lost this district by over 15. A democrat gain of +9. Even more unusual is the fact that Republicans typically over perform in Special Elections. Then another special election was held on August 9th in Minnesota 1st congressional district resulting in a Republican winning by 4 points. In a district former President Trump won by 10. Another over performance for Democrats. In New York's 19th Congressional, another special election resulted in a Democratic over performance. From a 1 point Biden victory to a 2.2 point victory for democrat Pat Ryan. On the same day, in New York's 23d
congressional, Democrats over-performed by 3.7% in another district won by Donald Trump.
Most recently, Democrat Mary Peltola won the sole Alaskan congressional seat in a special election against former Governor Sarah Palin. The seat had been controlled by Republicans since 1973 and won by Donald Trump in 2020 by 10 points. The reason is likely aboriton rights, which are supported and protected in Alaska. For the better part of the year, Democrats' chances of winning the house had meandered around the 10-15% range but following a series of over performances, their chance has risen to 24%. Certainly not a high likelihood, but again a drastic turn around from just a few months ago.
In the month of August alone, Biden signed a myriad of popular bills into law. Including the PACT Act which expands healthcare coverage for veterans. The CHIPs and Science Act which expand microchip production and research in the United States. The most comprehensive gun control bill since the 1990s. And the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate bill in American History. As well as small student loan forgiveness for those making under 125k a year. While all actions had their critics, the American public largely supported these actions. Allowing for an uptick in Biden's approval ratings.
The perceived legislative successes, the popular support for the right to an abortion, and strong individual candidates seem to have formed somewhat of a perfect storm. While there is not certainly that these factors will carry President Biden and the Democrats into success in this November's midterms, it appears to have boosted their chances tremendously. However, only time will tell whether this perceived shifting of the guard is a mere short term victory or a sign of times.
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