Election Results:
Senate Control: House Control: Colorado Governor:
Democratic, 51-49 Republican, 222-212 Jared Polis (D)
Gained 1 Seat Gained 9 Seats Reelected
Midterm elections are often described as a referendum over the party in control of the White House and Congress. Usually, midterms end up terribly for the party in control. Look at 2018 for an example, Democrats took control of the House by gaining 41 seats while Republicans were in control of the White House and Congress to make the balance of power stand at 235-199, or look at 2010 when Republicans gained 63 seats and control of the House with it when Democrats were in control of the White House and Congress.
History prophesied that Democrats were to be drowned in a so-called “red wave.” They had an unpopular president, they had multiple issues facing the nation- such as inflation- while controlling the White House and Congress. And the cherry on top: Democrats held extremely slim majorities in both houses of Congress, making them even more vulnerable to losing control.
Some media outlets claimed that the Democrats were set to be drowned by a “red wave,” but the wave never materialized. Instead, Democrats will be increasing their margin of control in the Senate and Republicans will be making smaller-than-expected gains in the House while taking control of it.
What Happened? History dictated that the Democrats, the party in power, would be decimated by the Republicans during these midterm elections. However, multiple issues and topics were driving people to the ballot box. Issues such as the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which caused individual states to become the arbiters on the legality of abortion within their territory. Other issues include the effects of Donald Trump’s election denialism, the cancellation of Student Loan Debt, and the war in Ukraine. These issues were on the minds of Americans and were mostly relevant to the election: several studies have shown that a majority of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all-to-most circumstances. Democrats ran on codifying abortion while Republicans were staunchly against abortion. A plurality of Americans support President Biden’s plan to cancel up to $20,000 of student loans for eligible borrowers while Republicans were against the plan. And lastly, an Ipsos poll found that 73% of Americans believe that the US should continue to support Ukraine in its ongoing war against Russia. Democrats advocated for more aid towards Ukraine while some Republicans questioned why aid was being given and even criticized the Ukrainian government. The Democrats ran on these issues, making sure that their platform aligned with what most Americans believed. However, these are just some of the issues that were on voters’ minds, each issue takes a part in who gets to swear an oath of office.
Another factor that benefitted the Democrats was that Republicans also suffered from relatively weak candidates in some races. As reported by the Talon Times article Sign of the Times by Charles Anderson, Republicans nominated relatively weak candidates which boasted the Democrats’ performance in those races. Two examples of this phenomenon stand out: Dr. Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker. Oz was considered a weak candidate because of his inability to connect with the average Pennsylvanian and being called a “carpetbagger” for living in New Jersey for over twenty years and running in Pennsylvania. Walker was considered a weak candidate thanks to a plethora of allegations and controversies against him. From allegations of threatening to kill and stalking women to paying the abortions for multiple women while being staunchly against abortion. Both of these candidates were considered to be easily attackable and critics were skeptical if they could even defeat their Democratic opponents. However, both Oz and Walker both received an endorsement from the leader of the GOP, former President Trump.
Endorsements can go a long way in an election, they can increase the popularity of a candidate, or they can ensure that someone’s favorite candidate wins. The latter was the case in these elections with fmr. President Trump’s favorite often increasing in popularity and winning the Republican primary for their race. A stellar example of this can be seen in the Republican Pennsylvania Senate Primary. The frontrunner of the primary was Sean Parnell, a US Army Veteran, and author who was endorsed by fmr. President Trump. Parnell was accused and found guilty of abusing his former wife and children on multiple occasions which eventually led to him withdrawing from the race. Attention then moved to David McCormick, the CEO of an investment management firm and former Undersecretary of Treasury for International Affairs under the George W. Bush administration However, fmr. President Trump was not fond of McCormick despite his newfound popularity, saying “I don’t know David well and he may be a nice guy, but he’s not MAGA'' at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Instead of endorsing the more popular, experienced, and stronger candidate, he endorsed Mehmet Oz. Whose campaign was previously considered to be laughable by Pennsylvania Republican strategists. Polls conducted before the primary showed that McCormick and Oz were practically tied with most voters undecided. However, on the 17 May primary, Oz won by 940 votes after a mandatory recount. The endorsement carried Oz onto the ballot and ensured he would be facing Democratic nominee John Fetterman in November. However, John Fetterman was considered to be a populist who was significantly more popular than Oz. Fetterman’s campaign effectively ensured that Oz remained an unpopular, weak candidate which led to Fetterman winning the General Election on the 8th of November by 3.4 percentage points. Oz lost even with a Trump endorsement in hand. And so did plenty of other Trump-endorsed candidates.
Trump endorsed candidates who backed him and at minimum didn’t denounce his claims of election fraud in the 2020 general Presidential election, this requisite led to the endorsement of rather risky candidates. The list of Trump-backed candidates who lost includes: Blake Masters of Arizona, Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Adam Laxalt of Nevada, and more. These candidates were mostly nominated based on the fact that they were endorsed by Trump and plenty of them had doubts casted onto them over their ability to win over Democratic nominees. This phenomenon of Trump-backed candidates ending up on the ballot was mentioned by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: “Our ability to control the primary outcome was quite limited in 2022 because of the support of the former president.” This is a rare admission mentioning Trump from the Senate Minority leader, an admission that signifies that Trump’s endorsements caused some lackluster candidates to win Republican primaries and lose in General Elections.
The results of the 2022 Midterm Elections were correlated with the endorsements of Trump. The Republicans were slated to win a significant amount of seats in the House and recapture the Senate but were unable to do so thanks to the poor candidate quality of multiple Trump-backed Candidates. So for the next two years, Congress will be split with Republicans in control of the House and Democrats in control of the Senate.
However, in 2024, when the next Senate elections take place, Democrats will be in significantly more jeopardy compared to this year. Democrats have to defend 23 seats versus the GOP’s 10. Many of the 23 seats are considered to be toss-up races or lean-Republican, meaning that Democrats are more at risk to lose multiple seats in the Senate and will have to work harder than usual in order to keep seats.
But one thing can be assured that these midterm elections will undoubtedly go down in history as one of the strangest in US History.
Comentarios